Peru: an approach to electoral performance in subnational reelections. Quantitative study of the 2010 provincial elections
This paper aims to identify the determinants of incumbents’ electoral performance on the 2010 Peruvian provincial elections. It uses data from several sources, from ministries to international organizations, to compile indicators at provincial level. Using a linear regression model to determine whic...
| Autor Principal: | Pedraglio Teillier, Darío |
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| Formato: | |
| Idioma: | spa |
| Publicado: |
Revista de Ciencia Política y Gobierno
2016
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: |
http://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/cienciapolitica/article/view/19203 |
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| Sumario: |
This paper aims to identify the determinants of incumbents’ electoral performance on the 2010 Peruvian provincial elections. It uses data from several sources, from ministries to international organizations, to compile indicators at provincial level. Using a linear regression model to determine which factors influence vote percentages of the mayors and organizations who sought reelection, results showed that incumbents’ expenditure capacity has an influence over their re-election result; voters have a favorable perception of an increase in expenditure in election years; incumbents who won the previous election with large numbers and by a greater margin tend to also perform well in re-election; and that sharing a political party with a strong regional candidate—first two places of his election—favors the provincial incumbent. The study’s intention is to contribute, with the available information, to national literature on subnational electoral behavior. |
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