Forecasting Average Monthly Prices for Colombian Wholesale Electricity Market Contracts
Forecasting electricity prices in liberalized, deregulated markets has always been considered a difficult task, due to the number of factors that govern prices and to their complexity. This article predicts the average monthly prices for Colombian electricity market contracts by using a novel neura...
| Autor Principal: | Velásquez H., Juan David |
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| Otros Autores: | Franco C., Carlos Jaime, Olaya M., Yris |
| Formato: | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| Idioma: | spa |
| Publicado: |
Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
2010
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: |
http://revistas.javeriana.edu.co/index.php/cuadernos_admon/article/view/3821 |
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| Sumario: |
Forecasting electricity prices in liberalized, deregulated markets has always been considered a difficult task, due to the number of factors that govern prices and to their complexity. This article predicts the average monthly prices for Colombian electricity market contracts by using a novel neural network known as the support vector machine. Forecasts obtained using a multilayer perceptron are compared to forecasts obtained using an ARIMA model. The results show that the support vector machine better captures the intrinsic dynamics of the time series and is able to make more precise forecasts considering a 12-month horizon. |
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