Predicción con series de tiempo para la optimización de la demanda eléctrica residencial
This draft develops a modeling allows to predict the behavior of annual electricity demand residential, is to say to forecast values to take in certain times. In this investigation draft alone is considered to residential level, having as need to minimize costs of energy electric consumption to that...
| Autor Principal: | Tasinchana Chicaiza, Diego Fernando |
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| Formato: | bachelorThesis |
| Idioma: | spa |
| Publicado: |
2016
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: |
http://dspace.ups.edu.ec/handle/123456789/11285 |
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| Sumario: |
This draft develops a modeling allows to predict the behavior of annual electricity demand residential, is to say to forecast values to take in certain times. In this investigation draft alone is considered to residential level, having as need to minimize costs of energy electric consumption to that be representative for the user, for the reason that currently reading of electromechanical and electronic counters are done manually and usually monthly, to determine the energy billing. The development of the investigation is carried out through time
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series, where it be identify that electric demand is not static, because varies through time by so that was chosen the method of static prognosis for time series, where is determined the main components of a time series. For the modeling of residential demand it was required determine a linear regression with on data from the electricity consumption of historical data from 2013 provided by Empresa Eléctrica Quito, to later to make the prediction for 2016, scheduled and presented in the Matlab tool informatic, showing the prediction of individual and total demand. For optimization it is manually developed considering a referential consumption limit heuristically or by the simplex method to minimize a function, to simulate the reduction in peak response curve of the forecasted demand. |
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